Predictive Methodology

One method of comparing different ratings systems is comparing how each system is able to predict the immediate future. The Predictive Analysis shows a comparison of computer rankings systems available in Massey’s College Football Ranking Composite. It computes the average spot differential between the composite and each individual rankings in each game of the week.

It shows which system was able to predict the outcomes of games for the next week.

There are three flavors:

Net Spots weighs all teams equally. This is the simple ranking.

Precision-Weighted Spots weighs teams at the high and low end more heavily. This should be more accurate because the teams should follow an exponential distribution.

Significance-Weighted Spots weighs teams from top to bottom. This emphasizes the more important games.

Starting with the 2017-2018 Season. The main page will show the cumulative scores for all systems that appear in the composite